Perspective Intelligence

Written January 2008.

With Jacob Zuma in position as the head of the African National Congress (ANC) and presumptive presidential candidate, his arrest and charge on a variety of corruption and fraud related charges is something of an inconvenience.  How the body politic of South Africa responds to this crisis will frame the direction of the country for at least the duration of the next presidential term.  Zuma is due in court on August 14, 2008 – plenty of time for him and his supporters, to stage a fight-back.  The early shots in this campaign have been fired – and unfortunately they are all the South Africa’s detriment.

Scorpions

Eight years ago South Africa launched an elite anti-crime squad to tackle amongst other things high-level corruption.  The main difference between the Scorpions (aka Directorate of Special Operations) and the South African Police Force was that they answered solely to the independent National Prosecuting Authority and not to the interior minister of the government who would also be an ANC party member.  The Scorpions have been highly successful prosecuting criminal-cases and white- collar fraud.  However, they are the lead agency responsible for the indictment of Jacob Zuma and also the recent arrest of the South African Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi (coincidentally also head of Interpol) due to his relationship with a convicted drug smuggler.

The new leaders of the ANC have concluded that if they can make the Scorpions disappear, or at least fatally damage them, ahead of Zuma’s trial – then their man stands a good chance of beating the corruption charges.  In essence the presidency of South Africa is dependent upon what happens to the scorpions.  So far the trend is against them.

At their height the Scorpions were around 550 strong, including 100 prosecutors, 200 investigators and 100 analysts.  But their numbers have been reduced by a fifth due to political pressure.  ANC activists will use their control over the other branches of government to choke the Scorpions, although it may be harder to undo the legislation that founded the unit than they think.  An early example of this high-stakes game was the arrest, by 20-armed men at his home, of Gerrie Nel – the Scorpions prosecutor leading the Selebi investigation.  He was released less than 24-hour later with no charges.

As Scorpions go, so goes the nation

There has long been disquiet over the control the ANC exercises over South Africa, essentially functioning as a one-party state.  There are some independent branches of the government – for example, the National Prosecuting Authority and the Scorpions – but they are few and far between.  As the ANC cannot control the Scorpions the new leadership of the party around Jacob Zuma will use every means possible to discredit the unit ahead of the August trial.  This will include the continued harassment of members of the unit and intense pressure will also be placed on the judiciary.  If the case against Zuma survives this intense attack against the investigating authority ANC activists will move onto attacking the trial itself.

Ultimately, for now, the fate of the South Africa presidency does not reside in presidential primaries or caucuses but on whether an investigative unit founded eight years ago can withstand the onslaught from ANC political activist determined to see Jacob Zuma as President of South Africa.

The Scorpions were disbanded following Jacob Zuma’s ascendency to the South African Presidency.

• Japanese organized crime organizations go by the name of Yakuza and trace there roots back to the shogun period in Japan.  However, the modern organized crime model developed after World War II, feeding on the demand for black market goods.

• In addition to typical vice crimes associated with organized crime everywhere, the yakuza are well ensconced in the corporate world.  One favored tactic is to buy a minor share in publicly traded companies so a member of the Yakuza can attend board meetings and create problems, unless they are paid off.

• The yakuza’s influence in Japanese society is more pervasive and more accepted in Japanese society than in the United States.  There are thought to be approximately 110,000 active yakuza members in Japan compared to 20,000 in the United States, which has more than double the population of Japan. Read the rest of this entry »

Written October 2004.

Russian Organized Crime

Recent organized crime initiatives to include the appointment of a new chief to combat organized crime and a decree signed by President Putin implementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime may impact how organized crime does business, but it may take some time before that impact is actually felt in their everyday business.  The anti-corruption campaign is likely to have more of a short term impact on organized crime.

Russian Organized Crime in Moscow has not featured heavily in open sources during the reporting period apart from allegations surrounding the ‘Pumane case’ (see below for details) and continuing speculation relating to the assassination of Paul Klebnikov, the Forbes reporter.  However, there have been some attempts by the Russian government to combat the endemic corruption and restore some operational clarity to the government departments tasked with combating organized crime.  Operations tend to be confused due to the patchwork of agencies involved–the lead is often taken by the Main Administration for Organized Crime (GUBOP) whose operational division the Tsentr-T was transferred into the department in 2003 from the Interior Ministry.  However, the Federal Security Service (FSB) Moscow Directorate, the Moscow City Prosecutor’s office and the Moscow City Police also get involved in organized crime cases.  Overall, this Byzantine structure is generally ineffective and is regarded as compromised by corruption. Read the rest of this entry »