Perspective Intelligence

Written December 2007.

The thoughtful private Intelligence company Stratfor just released a piece suggesting what it thinks are the limits to jihadi terrorists being able to conduct their terrorist planning and training online: The Role and Limitations of the ‘Dark Web’ In jihadist Training. Stratfor acknowledges that the Internet has been an enabler for terrorism but it doubts that the required tradecraft of terrorist operations can be taught online. Where Stratfor makes an error in this article is in not taking account of the enhanced capabilities of 3-D virtual worlds to assist the next generation of jihadi terrorists. The educational abilities of virtual worlds have been well-documented and as Stratfor points out bomb-making is best learnt from an expert. With the abilities available within virtual worlds there is no reason why this knowledge cannot be passed from teacher to pupil within a persistent 3-D environment. The real-time communication systems incorporating VoIP and the ability to produce sophisticated, ‘working’ 3-D models makes training in the engineering of terrorist technique a current reality.

But Stratfor, on this occasion, also makes the wider mistake of looking at the Internet as it is today, when the Internet always exists in the future. Therefore, while Stratfor rightly points to the limitations of Google Earth as a terrorist reconnaissance tool it fails to account for the Internet of tomorrow where target locations can be re-created in virtual worlds and attacks can be planned and practiced. It isn’t just virtual worlds but other applications that are making use of the explosion of data available to the ordinary user in order to create sophisticated digital tools, which will in time supplant Google Earth as the terrorist tool of choice. New software from Microsoft’s research lab entitled, Photosynth meshes with online photo sharing sites to deliver highly intricate 3-D models of real-world buildings and environments. Terrorists are understandably interested in any application that enhances their reconnaissance capability without exposing them to risk and photosynth fits that category. Conducting pre-attack surveillance is often when terrorist cells are at their most vulnerable – digital tools can reduce these vulnerabilities.

Technology companies are developing enhanced representations of the real world almost daily and these can clearly be corrupted for extremist use. Jihadi digital natives will increase the sophistication of their platforms to further enhance their potency – the limitations Stratfor correctly identifies will rapidly fall away.

Published March 1st, 2007.

The Metaverse is a phrase that was first used in Neal Stephenson’s science fiction novel Snow Crash.  In this science fiction novel written in 1992, the Metaverse can be accessed via public-access computer terminals where you then control your character known as an avatar.  This phrase and concept has now become a reality through a number of what are known as Massive Multi-player Online Role Playing Games (MMPORGs).  While some of these games, such as World of Warcraft, have a clear gaming identity the purest version of a digital 3-D world to emerge so far has been Second Life created in San Francisco by Linden Lab.  Second Life allows for a high degree of flexibility within its user created content and has a currency (known as the Linden) that can be freely exchanged against the US dollar. Second Life now boasts over four million users with probably a tenth of that number being active participants.  No identification is required to open a basic account, but to own ‘virtual-land’ a paypal or credit card account is required.  A number of Real-Life companies have established commercial interests in Second Life in order to test new products or simply to increase the exposure of their brand.  Real-Life universities and non-profits have also established learning centers within Second Life to take advantage of the dispersed learning environment.

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Three Strands of Jihad

The 17 August 2005 bombings in Bangladesh, highlighted a growing problem with Islamic extremism in the country, which some commentators noted has been growing since the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and subsequent exodus of fighters from that country into Bangladesh.  Islamic inspired terrorist activity is not a new phenomenon in the sub-continent, which has seen the creation of a myriad of Islamic terrorist movements that have subsequently fanned out around the globe.  What are often overlooked are the significant motivational and qualitative differences that exist within the broad milieu of Islamic movements.  There are significant differences between the ideas and tactical approach of the Taliban, the Arab Islamists that surrounded Bin Laden and became known as al Qaeda and the Mujahideen groups that fight in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir.  The Taliban were and are focused on the local aims of establishing a fundamentalist Islamic regime in Afghanistan, the Mujahideen active in Kashmir are focused on destabilizing the Indian state and are used by the Pakistani government to these geo-political ends. Al Qaeda’s Islamist ideology has been concerned with confronting what it sees as the, apostate regimes of the Middle East and their chief sponsor the United States, in order to re-establish Islamic rule throughout the region.  While this may seen like insignificant nuance, the ideological differences are translated into tactical action with Islamists seeking strategic mass casualty targets in order to confront the west and the locally inspired groups seeking societal and governmental targets within their locales to advance Islamic political revolution.  It is also noticeable that the use of suicide terrorism is, by and large, non-existent within the local struggles and has not surfaced in Bangladesh.

For Bangladesh, to paraphrase, Tip O’Neill, all terrorism is local.  Bangladesh has three strands of serious terrorist organizations; Separatist, Maoist and Islamic.  The Separatist movements are located along the border areas of Bangladesh and are unlikely to impact the protective operation.  The Maoist movement in the form of the Purbo Banlgar Communist Party (PBCP) operate mainly along the border with the Indian state of Bengal – its aim is the capture of state power via armed struggle.  PBCP activities are focused in the rural areas of Bangladesh and also are unlikely to impact the protective operation.  The two main Islamic terrorist groupings have their aims and motivations firmly rooted in the local, or at least regional.  The most prominent of the Islamic movements operating in Bangladesh, before the August 17 attacks was, Harakat ul Jihad I Islami/Bangladesh (HUJI-B), which is linked to the wider Harakat movement — having its roots and motivation in the conflict over Kashmir.  The second grouping in Bangladesh, which is widely thought to have been responsible for the August 17 attacks, is Jagrata Muslim Janta Bangldesh (JMJB)/ Jamat ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). The links between the two groups are sufficient to classify them as one entity.  The JMB grouping has as its inspiration the Taliban and seeks to create a similar regime in Bangladesh.  Its focus is local and aimed directly at the Bangladeshi state or un-Islamic elements within the country. Read the rest of this entry »

Written August 2005.

Kurdish Terrorism

There has been a surge in terrorist violence, during the summer of 2005, in Turkey aimed at tourist targets; which included some of the port cities and towns of southern and western Turkey.  This violence appears to be linked to an increase in activity by Kurdish separatist organizations.  While the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has remained active throughout the country another group, the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK), appears to be responsible for the attacks on the southern and western tourist areas.  It is unclear if the TAK is linked to the PKK as the links between the various Kurdish terrorist factions are in constant flux –Kurdish separatist terrorist groups include, Apo’s Revenge Hawks, People’s Defence Force (HPG), Kurdish Patriotic Union, Kongra-Gel, and the People’s Liberations Army of Kurdistan.  One of the TAK’s stated aims is to deny financial resources to the Turkish state, which has led them to target tourist areas – a tactic which has a long history within the overall Kurdish movement. Read the rest of this entry »

Written January 2005.

Terrorist incidents on the high seas or against maritime interests are neither new nor a prevalent activity, yet the current political-security environment suggests such an attack is both inevitable and imminent. Though a small and consistent group of security experts and policy analysts have warned of the vulnerability of maritime targets to terrorist attacks for more than two decades, concerns over maritime security received only occasional and cursory attention until September 11, 2001. The infamous 1985 terrorist hijacking of the cruise ship Achille Lauro off the coast of Egypt threw a global spotlight on the very real possibility of maritime terrorism. In October of that year, four Palestinian terrorists took control of the Achille Lauro and ordered the ship to Syria. When Syria denied access to their port, the hijackers killed one disabled American tourist, Leon Klinghoffer, and threw his body overboard, then headed back to Egypt. The Egyptian government and the PLO then negotiated an end to the hijacking. Though the situation was resolved rather quickly, it focused global attention, at least for a time, on the loopholes in port and ship security.

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