Perspective Intelligence

Two events centered on New York City separated by five days demonstrated the end of one phase of terrorism and the pending arrival of the next. The failed car-bombing in Times square and the dizzying stock market crash less than a week later mark the book ends of terrorist eras.

The attempt by Faisal Shahzad to detonate a car bomb in Times Square was notable not just for its failure but also the severely limited systemic impact a car-bomb could have, even when exploding in crowded urban center. Car-bombs or Vehicle-Borne IED’s have a long history (incidentally one of the first was the 1920 ‘cart and horse bomb’ in Wall Street, which killed 38 people). VBIED’s remain deadly as a tactic within an insurgency or warfare setting but with regard to modern urban terrorism the world has moved on. We are now living within a highly virtualized system and the dizzying stock-market crash on the 6th May 2010 shows how vulnerable this system is to digital failure. While the NYSE building probably remains a symbolic target for some terrorists a deadly and capable adversary would ignore this physical manifestation of the financial system and disrupt the data-centers, software and routers that make the global financial system tick.  Shahzad’s attempted car-bomb was from another age and posed no overarching risk to western societies. The same cannot be said of the vulnerable and highly unstable financial system.

Computer aided crash (proof of concept for future cyber-attack)

There has yet to be a definitive explanation of how stocks such as Proctor and Gamble plunged 47% and the normally solid Accenture plunged from a value of roughly $40 to one cent, based on no external input of information into the financial system. The SEC has issued directives in recent years boosting competition and lowering commissions, which has had the effect of fragmenting equity trading around the US and making it highly automated. This has created four leading exchanges, NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX Group, Bats Global Market and Direct Edge and secondary exchanges include International Securities Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange, the CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange. There are also broker-run matching systems like those run by Knight and ITG and so called ‘dark-pools’ where trades are matched privately with prices posted publicly only after trades are done. As similar picture has emerged in Europe, where rules allowing competition with established exchanges and known by the acronym “Mifid” have led to a similar explosion of types and venues. Read the rest of this entry »

The threats emanating from virtual communities have traditionally fallen into distinct categories:

1. Web 1.0 style of threat, where individuals or groups would post information on the web with the express purpose of it being used to cause harm to national security.

2. Web 2.0 emergence of cyber-jihadi’s who used the availability of more sophisticated web-tools in order to organize and recruit on-line as well as tapping into the ability to create extensive on-line propaganda. This phenomena is again linked to real-life individuals and groups who seek to exploit the myriad benefits of virtualization.

3. Dare I say, Threat 3.0. The emergence of groups in virtual communities (including virtual worlds) who develop their grievances and targets on-line and then spill-out into real life.

This last point has remained theory rather than fact, although there have been indicators along this path. One of the most prominent has been the Patriot Nigra‘s – a Second Life based group, which conducts disruption attacks within the game but has for some time reportedly acted outside of Second Life . A recent post in the second life herald blog reports on the use by the PN of a tactic called swatting — this is the deliberate misdirection of the emergency services to a victims home.

Whether these claims are true or not they continue to point to a trend that looks set to continue – the creation of disaffected groups within virtual spaces, that then seek to pursue their agenda in real-life. When combined with the undoubted emergence of market-based terrorism (espoused by Philip Bobbitt) predicated on the vast proliferation of information — this trend is one worth watching.

As part of the virtualization of terrorism it is worth considering what, if any, terrorist tactics can be applied in this new paradigm. One tactic, which can probably transfer from the real world to cyber environments is assassination, or in this case virtual-assassination. The tactic of assassination has value for a number of reasons. It can remove competent or charismatic leadership, damage morale and as a side effect can force an increase in security. So how would all this work in cyberspace?  You can’t of course physically murder someone there. But by looking at what assassination actually achieves it is possible to formulate a scenario that has a similar cyberspace effect.  Read the rest of this entry »

Capitol Hill March 2008.

On February 29 2008, Andrew Cochran moderated a special panel titled, “Meta-Terror: Terrorism and the Virtual World” before a packed room on Capitol Hill in Washington. Panelists were Kenneth Silva, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of VeriSign, and Contributing Experts Roderick Jones of Concentric Solutions International and Evan Kohlmann of the NEFA Foundation. The Counterterrorism Foundation co-sponsored this special panel with the GAGE International consulting firmand the NEFA Foundation.

The event drew considerable press interest, with three of us interviewed by the BBC before the event. See “Cyber-threats in Virtual Worlds and Beyond” and “US seeks terrorists in web worlds” on the BBC site.

The following is a transcript of the event, beginning with my introductions of the panelists and continuing through their remarks (edited for grammar and using the panelists’ written remarks when available), and including the attendees’ questions and the panelists’ answers.

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Published March 1st, 2007.

The Metaverse is a phrase that was first used in Neal Stephenson’s science fiction novel Snow Crash.  In this science fiction novel written in 1992, the Metaverse can be accessed via public-access computer terminals where you then control your character known as an avatar.  This phrase and concept has now become a reality through a number of what are known as Massive Multi-player Online Role Playing Games (MMPORGs).  While some of these games, such as World of Warcraft, have a clear gaming identity the purest version of a digital 3-D world to emerge so far has been Second Life created in San Francisco by Linden Lab.  Second Life allows for a high degree of flexibility within its user created content and has a currency (known as the Linden) that can be freely exchanged against the US dollar. Second Life now boasts over four million users with probably a tenth of that number being active participants.  No identification is required to open a basic account, but to own ‘virtual-land’ a paypal or credit card account is required.  A number of Real-Life companies have established commercial interests in Second Life in order to test new products or simply to increase the exposure of their brand.  Real-Life universities and non-profits have also established learning centers within Second Life to take advantage of the dispersed learning environment.

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Written June 2006.  The report was initiated in response to a TSA warning issued on 20 April 2006, which stated a message had been posted on an Islamist web forum explaining how to identify private jets and urging Muslims to destroy all such aircraft, “Destroy private American aircraft .. We call upon all Muslims to follow and identify private civilian American aircrafts in all airports of the world.. It is the duty of Muslims to destroy all types of private American aircrafts that are of the types Gulf Stream and Lear Jet and all small jet aircraft usually used by distinguished (people) and businessmen”.

Scope Note

This study is predicated on open source information available as of 2 June 2006.  In particular, open source databases relating to global civil aviation incidents and global terrorist incidents were utilized to provide statistical analysis.  These databases include the Aviation Safety Network, the Air Disaster Database, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) incident database and the RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident Database.  In addition, telephone interviews were conducted with members of the United States Transport Security Administration, the International Civil Aviation Organization, the United Nations Office for Aviation Safety and Logistics and the security officers for two international commercial airlines.  The focus of this study is the potential threats to private aviation operations, globally.  Threats and incidents relating to commercial civil aviation operations are discussed as an essential precursor and guide to analysis of private aviation operations. Private aviation is taken to mean the use of non-commercial aircraft.

Executive Summary

Analysis of data from civil aviation databases demonstrates that the greatest threats to civilian aviation operations generally and by extension private aviation operations, are the actions of war, Hijacking, Sabotage and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).  Of these threats security procedures and planning are able, in some ways, to mitigate the effects of all these scenarios apart from MANPADS.  While there are substantial challenges involved in conducting an attack using a MANPADS system, once the required assets are in place there is a substantial degree of operational and tactical freedom available to a potential attacker.  Conducting a MANPADS attack within the United States or Western Europe would be an operationally challenging proposition for any potential attacker but conducting these operations in other parts of the world is less demanding.  While there are strenuous efforts being made to counter the proliferation of these weapons the collapse of the Iraqi state has released more systems and crucially, more expertise into the hands of potential adversarial groups.   In particular, Islamist terrorist groups have sought to acquire expertise with MANPADS and it is significant that the only known recorded use of these systems outside of a war-zone remains the al-Qaeda attack against an Israeli charter jet leaving Mombassa in 2002.  With regard to private aviation operations it should however, be noted that apart from the TSA warning relating to the Islamist threat to private aviation, there is no other evidence of Islamist groups seeking to attack private aircraft.

The threat to private aviation should be regarded as of a lower factor than that accorded to commercial aviation.  This is due to the absence of factors, which make an attack on commercial aviation an attractive proposition — propaganda value, large-scale economic impact and mass-casualties.  However, as commercial aviation becomes harder to target it is possible to suggest that private aviation may become a more significant target.  Further, in certain areas of the world the background threat from the most widely used attack scenarios is high enough to warrant significant concern — these areas are the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.  In these regions of the world the presence of warfare, potential adversaries, the proliferation of MANPADS and lower levels of security infrastructure would suggest the use of more robust aviation security measures. Read the rest of this entry »

Written August 2005.

Kurdish Terrorism

There has been a surge in terrorist violence, during the summer of 2005, in Turkey aimed at tourist targets; which included some of the port cities and towns of southern and western Turkey.  This violence appears to be linked to an increase in activity by Kurdish separatist organizations.  While the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has remained active throughout the country another group, the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK), appears to be responsible for the attacks on the southern and western tourist areas.  It is unclear if the TAK is linked to the PKK as the links between the various Kurdish terrorist factions are in constant flux –Kurdish separatist terrorist groups include, Apo’s Revenge Hawks, People’s Defence Force (HPG), Kurdish Patriotic Union, Kongra-Gel, and the People’s Liberations Army of Kurdistan.  One of the TAK’s stated aims is to deny financial resources to the Turkish state, which has led them to target tourist areas – a tactic which has a long history within the overall Kurdish movement. Read the rest of this entry »

Written January 2005

Groups and organizations ideologies, goals and objectives

Italy has traditionally suffered from political terrorism partly as a bi-product of the cold war and partly due to the wave of left-wing terrorist groups which sprang up throughout Europe in the 1970’s.  In Italy these years have been refered to as, ‘The years of lead’ in reference to the amount of bullets fired by both sides of the ideological divide. The Italian Red Brigade (Brigate Rosse) was without doubt the most notorious of the European left-wing revolutionary terror groups from this time.  This group specialized in the assassination of high level Italian industrial figures and politicians.  However, after the kidnapping and subsequent execution of Italy’s Prime Minister, Aldo Moro in 1978 the Red Brigade was gradually broken up by Italian authorities with the majority of its members facing prosecution, although a few of the senior members did manage to escape to South America.  There remains the suspicion of Italian government collusion with some of the groups which operated in these years.  The late 1990’s saw the re-emergence of left-wing terrorist groups claiming the Red Brigade heritage and more importantly their support networks.  These groups documented below are the current left-wing terror groups operating in Italy.  They all follow a similar Marxist ideology and advocate direct action. Read the rest of this entry »

Written January 2005.

Terrorist incidents on the high seas or against maritime interests are neither new nor a prevalent activity, yet the current political-security environment suggests such an attack is both inevitable and imminent. Though a small and consistent group of security experts and policy analysts have warned of the vulnerability of maritime targets to terrorist attacks for more than two decades, concerns over maritime security received only occasional and cursory attention until September 11, 2001. The infamous 1985 terrorist hijacking of the cruise ship Achille Lauro off the coast of Egypt threw a global spotlight on the very real possibility of maritime terrorism. In October of that year, four Palestinian terrorists took control of the Achille Lauro and ordered the ship to Syria. When Syria denied access to their port, the hijackers killed one disabled American tourist, Leon Klinghoffer, and threw his body overboard, then headed back to Egypt. The Egyptian government and the PLO then negotiated an end to the hijacking. Though the situation was resolved rather quickly, it focused global attention, at least for a time, on the loopholes in port and ship security.

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